Wednesday, July 24

Property News 22 July 2013

Residential market poised on a knife-edge

Record number of new homes nearing completion clouds outlook
DEPENDING on which set of data you are looking at, you will get a very different picture of the effectiveness of government measures to rein in property prices.
Urban Redevelopment Authority figures show that an astounding 1,806 new private homes were sold last month.
This was a 23.8 per cent jump over May's 1,459 units, which was, in turn, a 5.4 per cent improvement over the 1,384 homes sold in April.
However, flash data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) showed that only 605 resale condos were sold last month, a 21 per cent drop from May's 762 and a 10 per cent drop below the April tally of 671.
Some will argue that the June new home sales data was a fluke, as demand had been bolstered by blockbuster sell-outs at projects such as the 738-unit J Gateway in Jurong East and the Jewel@ Buangkok condo with 616 homes.
But the half-yearly data shows a similar divergent trend.
There were 10,061 new private homes sold in the first half - a drop of 16 per cent over the corresponding period last year.
But resale volume for the first six months was down a striking 30 per cent to 3,954 units from 5,675 transactions a year earlier.
Judging from the data, it would be safe to infer that the Government's January cooling measures, including imposing a 7 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty on Singaporeans for buying a second property and 10 per cent for a third or subsequent property, have been effective in dampening demand for resale homes.
However, the curbs are having a smaller impact on the new home sales market, perhaps due to developers' aggressive tactics such as giving cash rebates on stamp duties.
That leads to the next question: Will the tougher rules on home loans announced at the end of last month have an impact on the new home sales market?
Essentially, the rules cap how much a property buyer can borrow by ensuring that his monthly repayments, combined with all other debt obligations, do not exceed 60 per cent of his gross monthly income.
To plug the loophole whereby some parents use their children's names to buy a second property, loan guarantors will also be considered as co-borrowers.
Daiwa Capital Markets analyst David Lum believes that linking the loan to the debt will remove some demand from the market.
"Anecdotally, some buyers (near retirement age) have circumvented the additional buyer's stamp duty and loan-to-valuation restrictions by buying their second and third homes in their children's names," he wrote in a recent note.
But Mr Colin Tan, research head of property consultancy Chesterton Suntec International, believes that many property buyers have sufficient spare cash to overcome whatever measures are thrown at them.
"Most of us think all existing buyers are stretching themselves to the hilt. Personally, I don't think so. Investors borrow to the hilt because it is silly not to do so. Likewise, they use their children's names because it is silly not to."
Certainly, there are plenty of people with spare cash to buy a property or two, even after tightening the rules on home loans.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore data shows that there is plenty of liquidity sloshing around here, with Singdollar deposits jumping to $534.3 billion in May from $487.9 billion a year earlier.
Many home buyers also find the progress payment scheme in buying a new flat attractive. To them, this is like getting a long-dated option to buy a stock which magnifies any gains they may make, if property prices go up.
However, one challenge the market faces is the record number of new homes that will be completed in the next two years.
Using a stock market analogy, this is equivalent to a large number of stock options expiring simultaneously - an event that can trigger wild swings in stock prices.
There are about 290,000 completed private housing units and executive condos in Singapore but analysts estimate that a further 100,000 units will be completed in the next four years.
This means that the supply of private housing units will jack up by one-third - a huge increase by any measure, even after taking into account the recent increase in population.
Macquarie Equities Research analyst Soong Tuck Yin wrote: "As most of these (private home) completions may affect buyers seeking tenants, there will be pressures on rental yields. If this happens, yield spreads will be narrowed and weaker holders may be tempted to sell."
Throw in a couple more uncertainties such as an interest rate hike and a hard landing in big economies such as China, and you will understand the headwinds facing the residential market.
That is why it does not take a rocket scientist to explain why property counters seem stuck in the basement, unloved and neglected, even though new home sales stay buoyant.

Property developer Ying Li to explore new frontiers

Mr Ko became CEO and executive director of Ying Li in March. The Chinese property developer's next phase of growth aims to go beyond developing mixed-use property and into "thematic" real estate
CHINESE property developer Ying Li International Real Estate has kept a low profile since its listing on the mainboard in 2008 but the firm now wants investors to know that it has aggressive expansion plans.
Ying Li's transformation will involve raising capital, entering new markets, developing more ambitious real estate projects and spinning off a real estate investment trust (Reit).
The success of this wide-ranging strategy falls on the shoulders of Mr Ko Kheng Hwa, 58, who came on board as Ying Li's chief executive and executive director in March.
He was formerly the CEO of Singbridge International Singapore, a wholly owned unit of Temasek Holdings, which primarily develops and invests in large-scale integrated townships in China.
"We will expand our core business in Chongqing while entering new markets and investing in new real estate products," Mr Ko said in an interview with The Straits Times.
He has had 34 years of experience in the government service and government-linked companies, holding top positions at Keppel Corp, the Economic Development Board and JTC Corp.
Earlier this month, Ying Li also roped in Mr Tan Kiang Hwee, 50, the former chief executive of Temasek-owned urban planner Surbana, as its chief operating officer.
Since it started in 1993, Ying Li has focused on developing mixed-use commercial and office buildings in Chongqing's core central business district and selling them off, a business that has helped it to amass a market capitalisation of about $965 million.
But Ying Li has now set itself new targets. Its next phase of growth aims to go beyond developing mixed-use property and into "thematic" real estate.
Its buildings will house companies in the same industry class together for that additional competitive edge, akin to a media, health-care or education hub.
Mr Ko said Ying Li will also look at building residential townships which will offer social and commercial amenities.
Moreover, Ying Li will widen its focus beyond Chongqing's business district and suss out opportunities in the suburbs, and even possibly to other second- and third-tier cities in China.
"We want to build critical mass, presence and grow our reputation in these selected cities," said Mr Ko.
He noted that Chongqing has been selected by the Chinese government as one of the non-coastal regions to be developed under the "Go West" policy. Businesses there can therefore expect better incentives, infrastructure and policy implementation to drive economic growth, he said.
To fund these expansion plans, Ying Li will be placing out new shares to targeted investors who can contribute capital as well as add value to the business through their networks.
It will also issue bonds and consider entering joint ventures for certain developments. Finding a partner will allow Ying Li to be involved in more projects than when it was self-financing all its developments.
In the medium term, Ying Li is looking to list a real estate investment trust for its malls. Ying Li already owns and runs two retail malls and a third one, the size of VivoCity, is slated to open by the end of the year. Its malls, land banks and some office units which it retains are valued at about seven billion yuan (S$1.4 billion).
Plans are also in motion to make operations at Ying Li and its projects more eco-friendly and green by Chinese and international standards.

Sunday, July 21

Property News 21 July 2013

Fewer HDB dwellers buy private properties

Number of HDB upgraders should fall as cooling measures bite, say analysts
Mayflower Gardens Private houses (foreground) and HDB public housing (background) in the Ang Mo Kio estate. Recent property measures have put a squeeze on the number of Housing Board dwellers buying private properties

RECENT property measures have put a squeeze on the number of Housing Board dwellers buying private properties.
According to the latest early figures, buyers with HDB addresses picked up 3,700 new private homes in the first six months of the year. This seems to mark a slowdown from last year, which saw 9,985 such transactions across 12 months.
A similar trend has been seen in the private resale market. HDB upgraders bought just 1,550 homes in the first half of this year, compared to 5,261 for the whole of last year.
R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng said that the market is feeling the effects of the cooling measures introduced in January to prevent home buyers from biting off more than they can afford.
Not only must buyers borrow less on their second housing loan, they also need to stump up 25 per cent of the property's value, up from 10 per cent. Stamp duty for second property purchases also rose to 7 per cent, from none in the case of citizens.
"Besides, many HDB dwellers may have also bought their private properties last year due to a strong supply in attractive locations such as Punggol," said Mr Ong. There were 21,000 private property units launched last year, compared to 10,000 so far in the first half of this year.
The latest figures on HDB upgraders were culled from caveats lodged voluntarily with the Urban Redevelopment Authority. They do not take into account whether buyers own or rent their HDB flats, or if they were buying their first or second private property.
Analysts, including Mr Ong, predict that the number of HDB upgraders will continue to shrink over the next two years.
This is partly because of new rules issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore last month, which cap a person's total monthly debt repayments at 60 per cent of his gross monthly income. That means that even car loans will be factored in when calculating how much a person can borrow to finance a property purchase.
DTZ's head of Singapore research Lee Lay Keng believes the introduction of the total debt servicing ratio could lead to HDB upgraders scaling back their private property plans. For instance, a buyer earning $8,000 a month who already pays $1,500 towards a car loan instalment will be restricted to buying a second property worth $1.1 million, down from $1.6 million previously.
"The biggest hurdle for this group lies in the cash outlay that includes stamp duties, downpayment and other costs. This can amount to three times the annual income," she added.
Finance executive Leong Yi Xing is waiting for the dust to settle in the wake of the new measures before deciding on upgrading from his five-room Bedok flat.
"HDB prices are still holding up very well compared to private property prices, which may have more room to drop. I'll wait for the price between the two to narrow," said the 31-year-old.

More ECs up for grabs

Seven projects to go on market in second half of the year
Sea Horizon, to be launched next month, boasts "panoramic sea views" and units with french balconies and full-height windows. -- PHOTO: HAO YUAN DEVELOPMENT
Sea Horizon, to be launched next month, boasts "panoramic sea views" and units with french balconies and full-height windows

EXECUTIVE condominium (EC) developers are again pulling out all the stops in the battle for buyers as competition intensifies in the second half of this year.
Developers of projects under this very popular public-private housing hybrid are no longer allowed to build gargantuan penthouse suites after unit-size restrictions were imposed in January.
The penthouses had been selling for sky-high prices.
But developers now aim to stand out from the crowd by offering ECs with features such as maisonette units, waterfront views, balcony entrances and even a "skypark" 50m above ground.
Of the seven EC projects slated for launch this year, five will go on sale some time over the next four months.
This means that of the 3,337 EC units in this year's supply, an expected 2,226 units will hit the market from now till October.
But EC supply next year is likely to plummet due to a 15-month rule on sales that was also imposed in January.
Under the rule, EC developers have to launch their projects for sale 15 months from the date of award of the sites or after the physical completion of foundation works, whichever is earlier.
Market watchers reckon that there will be no new EC launches for at least the first three quarters of next year and the number of new EC launches next year could be as little as two projects.
ECs are designed to cater to a "sandwiched class" of people who earn too much to qualify for a Housing Board flat but find private property prices too high.
Some first-time developers with solid track records in the luxury segment have also thrown their hats into the ring, lured by the lower total development costs for EC projects compared with private condominium projects.
The price developers pay for EC sites is lower than that for private residential plots because restrictions apply to EC resales during the first decade of occupation.
The new faces in the segment include boutique developers JBE Holdings and Sing Holdings, which are both better known for their high-end projects.
"We're very confident of the EC market... We know that EC buyers are getting more sophisticated," JBE Holdings director Patrick Lam told The Straits Times in an interview on Thursday at The Luxe at Handy Road, which JBE developed.
JBE's upcoming EC project is the 506-unit SkyPark Residences at Sembawang Drive, under a joint venture with construction firm Keong Hong. E-applications are likely to begin in September and bookings in October.
Mr Lam said the EC segment was a "good diversification" away from the luxury market and added that JBE's next project is also likely to be an EC.
JBE won the site for $211.9 million or $323.76 per sq ft (psf) per plot ratio (ppr) last December. The project's construction cost is likely to be just under $150 million, Mr Lam said.
Of that, $3 million to $5 million will be spent on a 1,250 sq m "skypark" straddling three towers about 50m above ground.
No official pricing has been released but market watchers say the price could be between $720 psf and $800 psf.
Both SkyPark Residences and the upcoming 373-unit WaterWoods in Punggol will also include five-bedroom maisonette units.
WaterWoods, next to the Flo Residence condo, is jointly developed by UE E&C and Sing Holdings. Sing Holdings won the site last December for $162.1 million or $351 psf ppr, nearly 9 per cent higher than the second-highest bid of $148.9 million lodged by JBE.
Sing Holdings chief executive Lee Sze Hao said the firm was using the same team working on its high-end projects for WaterWoods.
"This segment is, after all, least susceptible to market speculation, and all EC home owners will also eventually own just one property, which means they present relatively less credit risk... the EC market is one of the most stable housing segments," Mr Lee said.
Lush Acres, City Developments' 380-unit EC at Fernvale Close, was over-subscribed by about 1.6 times when it opened for e-applications last Saturday.
The next EC project to launch in upcoming months is Sea Horizon in Pasir Ris. E-applications are expected to start early next month.
Sea Horizon is Chinese developer Hao Yuan Investment's second EC project. Hao Yuan launched its first EC, Forestville in Woodlands, in June.
Its developer is touting "panoramic sea views" and units that come with french balconies and full-height windows.
"Sea Horizon is one of the rare few executive condominiums that boast a coastal location... We believe the close proximity to the coastline will be a big plus for many home buyers," a Hao Yuan spokesman said.
Unit sizes range from 71 sq m to 160 sq m. The project is expected to be priced below $1,000 psf.

Plenty of amenities in north-east

Checking out the page views on the STProperty website gives an instant snapshot of what projects buyers are keen on. This week, we look at developments in districts 19 and 20 that have drawn the most attention.
An artist's impression of Bartley Residences (above), a District 19 project with an average asking price of $1,231 psf for its units. Sky Habitat headed the District 20 list of top five private homes by page views on STProperty last week. -- PHOTOS: CDL
An artist's impression of Bartley Residences, a District 19 project with an average asking price of $1,231 psf for its units.

An artist's impression of Bartley Residences, a District 19 project with an average asking price of $1,231 psf for its units. Sky Habitat (above) headed the District 20 list of top five private homes by page views on STProperty last week. -- PHOTOS: CAPITALAND
Sky Habitat headed the District 20 list of top five private homes by page views on STProperty last week
SINGAPORE'S north-east region comprises newer estates such as Punggol and Sengkang, and the mature estate of Hougang.
Together, the three areas make up District 19.
Residents in the area are served by popular shopping centres such as nex mall, Heartland Mall and Hougang Mall, and newer infrastructure such as the scenic Punggol Waterway.
The district is also connected by the North-East MRT line.
Based on the highest number of page views on website STProperty from July 8 to 14, the top five private homes which attracted the most attention were all 99-year leaseholds.
Topping the list was 702-unit Bartley Residences with an average asking price of $1,231 per sq ft (psf) for its one-, two- and three- or more bedder units. It also recorded the highest average transacted price among the projects at $1,191 psf between January and last month, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).
The other four projects in the list were the 920-unit Riversails, the 380-unit Lush Acres, the 1,145-unit The Minton and the 700-unit The Topiary.
Farther to the west lies District 20 which covers Ang Mo Kio, Bishan and Thomson.
The Central Business District is easily accessible from these areas via the North-South MRT line, buses and expressways.
Many home buyers are drawn to this area because of the ample choices of food, leisure amenities and connectivity.
Heading the list of top five private homes by page views on STProperty in the past week was the 509-unit Sky Habitat in Bishan.
It offered one-, two- and three- or more bedders at an average asking price of $1,530 psf. URA data showed that the average transacted price for its units between January and last month was $1,546 psf.
The project with the highest average asking price between July 8 and 14 was the freehold Three 11 along Upper Thomson Road.
With only 65 units, its one-, two- and three- or more bedder units had an average asking price of $1,573 psf.
However, no caveats for the project had been lodged with the URA between January and June.
Its preview launch was held last month.
The other three projects that made it to the top five were The Gardens At Bishan, Belgravia Villas and Rafflesia condominium.

S'pore buyers flock to Johor's Medini project

Developers see good take-up at condo launches in Iskandar township
The Meridin @ Medini is launching a third block of units for sale today. Of the 5,000 people who have registered interest in the 161 units, more than 3,000 are Singaporean

THE township of Medini in Johor's Iskandar Malaysia is fast becoming a property hot spot as thousands of Singaporeans rush to sign up for launches there.
Located in the Nusajaya administrative zone, the 9.2 sq km flagship development is a 10-minute drive from the Tuas Second Link.
Iskandar's master planners envisage Medini as a vibrant commercial and business district, complete with malls, offices, high-end homes and a hospital.
Last month, Pulau Indah Ventres, a 50-50 joint venture between Temasek Holdings and Khazanah Nasional, launched the Afiniti Residences condominium in Medini to heavy fanfare.
The 88 units on sale were snapped up in under six hours.
This exuberance probably signalled to investors that Medini was heating up and that the time was ripe to get in, said Chesterton Suntec research head Colin Tan.
"Those who didn't manage to get an Afiniti unit but saw that things were picking up at Medini could now be going for upcoming projects in the area," he added.
They include The Meridin @ Medini by Malaysian developer Mah Sing.
The Meridin was selling well even before Afiniti came onto the scene - 75 per cent of the 495 units released in May had been taken up.
About half of the buyers were Singaporean, said Mah Sing chief executive Leong Hoy Kum.
Demand for the third block of units, which is being launched for sale today, is expected to go even higher.
Only 161 units are up for grabs but about 5,000 people have registered, of whom more than 3,000 are Singaporean.
The Meridin's location - it sits next to Legoland and across the road from Afiniti Residences - is probably a major draw for Singaporeans, said Mr Leong.
The project's price is probably another big factor, he added.
He said the units being launched this week are priced at RM730 (S$287) per sq ft (psf) on average. He noted that this level offers a lower entry point than Singapore property does and even beats the RM1,000 psf seen at some Iskandar properties.
"This is something we normally practise, to leave some room for capital appreciation for the units in future," he said.
Another developer that has seen strong interest in its Medini project is Zhuoyuan Iskandar - a joint venture between China-based ZhuoDa Real Estate Group and Malaysia's Iskandar Investment, the master planner for Nusajaya.
The company is building Paradiso Nuova, a 382-unit condominium that it expects to launch in mid-September.
More than 600 people have already registered their interest, about 40 per cent of whom are Singaporean, said sales and marketing director Liang Thow Ming.
"We expect a diverse group of buyers - investors who want to capitalise on Medini's story, as well as people who are keen to stay there, whether they are Malaysians who work in Singapore or Singaporeans who are seeking a lower cost of living," he said.
"EduCity, Iskandar's education hub, also provides good rental potential because there is a shortage of hostel space and the universities are enjoying exponential growth in student numbers."

'Shell' firms can't slip past new loan regime
TDSR to apply to individuals who set up entities to buy commercial, industrial properties
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INDIVIDUALS who set up "shell companies" for buying commercial or industrial properties to try and circumvent the total debt servicing ratio framework may be in for a disappointment.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore, responding to queries from The Business Times, said that "when individuals set up local or offshore 'shell companies' which do not have substantive businesses with genuine commercial activities, FIs (financial institutions) should assess these cases thoroughly and apply the TDSR framework accordingly" for the individuals concerned.
However, existing companies trading in property and/or holding investment properties for rental income are deemed to be engaged in "genuine commercial activities" and hence will not be subject to the TDSR framework. Likewise, new entities set up by, say, an established property group or fund would not be subject to TDSR if the FIs can establish the new entity's parentage.
The onus will be on FIs to do a thorough investigation on the entities - including companies incorporated in places like British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands and Mauritius - to establish whether they have any substantive business or are shell companies - for them to determine whether to apply the TDSR framework.
Under new rules announced late last month, all FIs have to abide by the TDSR framework when granting property loans to individuals.
In its response to BT, MAS reiterated that the framework is not applicable to corporates applying for property loans as they are generally subject to a different set of credit assessment criteria.
Market participants generally welcomed the clarification from MAS. OCBC Bank's head of consumer secured lending Phang Lah Hwa said it will provide clarity to potential property buyers.
Another banking source said: "We've been in dialogue with MAS since the implementation of the TDSR framework and the feedback given has helped to clarify initial queries."
DTZ's senior director of investment advisory services, Shaun Poh, told BT that initially, when the TDSR was announced, many individuals investing in commercial and industrial property had thought the framework applied only to housing loans
"It was only later that they realised that they too now come under the TDSR rules," Mr Poh said.
"In some cases, if they own existing companies with genuine businesses such as commodity trading, they are considering making the purchase through such entities."
On June 28, when MAS rolled out the TDSR framework for all property-related loans granted by FIs to individuals (including both residential and non-residential property, and whether it is in Singapore or overseas), it had specified that in cases where the borrower is a sole proprietor or an individual who sets up a company solely to buy property, FIs are required to apply the TDSR rules to the individual.
This had led to concerns among some existing smaller property trading and investment outfits for instance over whether their loan applications for any future property purchases would be subject to the TDSR rules.
Among other things, the framework stipulates that a borrower's total monthly debt obligations must not exceed 60 per cent of his gross monthly income. FIs are also required to apply a medium-term interest rate floor of 4.5 per cent for non-residential property loans (and 3.5 per cent for housing loans) in addition to applying a haircut of at least 30 per cent to all variable income and rental income.
The view on the ground is that MAS' target is to foster financial prudence among mom and pop investors and prevent them from overleveraging, particularly when interest rates rise.
As Lee Liat Yeang, real estate practice partner at Rodyk & Davidson, puts it: "MAS is trying to control the amount of loans extended by FIs to individuals. Therefore if it doesn't control individuals who use companies as an instrument for this purpose, it will not be able to adequately ensure that such individuals are not overly extended through their companies.
"Here, we are talking about a shell company or special purpose vehicle that will depend on the individual sponsors for repayment of loans."
The founder of a boutique property investment group said that a lot of mom and pop investors set up special purpose vehicles to buy commercial or industrial properties. "If they buy through a GST-registered company, they can claim back the 7 per cent GST on the purchase of the property."
Such individual investors - who previously could get loan quantums as high as 70 per cent of the property's valuation - will no longer have such easy access to cheap funding, points out Mary Sai, executive director at Knight Frank.
"So don't expect too much bank lending. Those who have been buying uncompleted strata commercial properties at new launches on progress payment and flipping them within a short time - their wings have been clipped. This is often the group that is financially stretched," says Ms Sai. (See table)
"On the other hand, the new environment benefits genuine investors with financial means who don't need much borrowing; they will feel less competition and can take their time to push for a fairer price," she added.
The level of enquiries for commercial property generally in the industry has fallen at least 20 per cent since the new rules were announced three weeks ago, said Ms Sai.
The phenomenon of individuals setting up companies to buy properties typically applies to the purchase of commercial and industrial properties. The property's vendor, if it is a GST-registered company, collects GST on behalf of the government. Residential property is GST-exempt.
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RATES TABLE1 Singapore Dollar Rates table

Top 10Jul 20, 2013 04:32 UTC
Singapore Dollar 1.00 SGDinv. 1.00 SGD
Euro0.600864 1.664271
US Dollar 0.789603 1.266460
British Pound0.516942 1.934454
Indian Rupee 46.893386 0.021325
Australian Dollar0.860790 1.161724
Canadian Dollar 0.818593 1.221609
Emirati Dirham2.900210 0.344803
Swiss Franc 0.743032 1.345837
Chinese Yuan Renminbi4.846738 0.206324
Malaysian Ringgit 2.522338 0.396458

SIBOR SOR
1 Month 0.311670.17193
2 Month 0.36333 0.21120
3 Month 0.375830.23442
6 Month 0.43500 0.35964
9 Month 0.498330.50330
12 Month 0.56208 0.64434